Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, enacted by the Republican legislature and signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in May 2026, reconfigured multiple Democratic-held districts by shifting boundaries to increase Republican lean, targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, and Jared Moskowitz while aiming for a 24-4 GOP advantage overall. This structural shift has anchored trader expectations for Democrats around four to six seats despite a national midterm environment that favors the opposition party through historical patterns and generic ballot trends. Primaries concluded in August with several competitive general-election matchups now rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters, leaving room for national dynamics or turnout variations to influence final outcomes in the November vote. The close clustering of probabilities around the leading options reflects uncertainty over how much Democratic overperformance can offset the map changes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5 14%
6 13%
12+ 13%
7 12%
NEU
NEU
2. Nov. 2026
<4
1%
4
22%
5
14%
6
13%
7
12%
8
5%
9
5%
10
12%
11
11%
12+
13%
5 14%
6 13%
12+ 13%
7 12%
NEU
NEU
2. Nov. 2026
<4
$184 Vol.
1%
4
$1,301 Vol.
22%
5
$647 Vol.
14%
6
$400 Vol.
13%
7
$414 Vol.
12%
8
$332 Vol.
5%
9
$391 Vol.
5%
10
$590 Vol.
12%
11
$750 Vol.
11%
12+
$481 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, enacted by the Republican legislature and signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in May 2026, reconfigured multiple Democratic-held districts by shifting boundaries to increase Republican lean, targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, and Jared Moskowitz while aiming for a 24-4 GOP advantage overall. This structural shift has anchored trader expectations for Democrats around four to six seats despite a national midterm environment that favors the opposition party through historical patterns and generic ballot trends. Primaries concluded in August with several competitive general-election matchups now rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters, leaving room for national dynamics or turnout variations to influence final outcomes in the November vote. The close clustering of probabilities around the leading options reflects uncertainty over how much Democratic overperformance can offset the map changes.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volumen
$5,491Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, enacted by the Republican legislature and signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in May 2026, reconfigured multiple Democratic-held districts by shifting boundaries to increase Republican lean, targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, and Jared Moskowitz while aiming for a 24-4 GOP advantage overall. This structural shift has anchored trader expectations for Democrats around four to six seats despite a national midterm environment that favors the opposition party through historical patterns and generic ballot trends. Primaries concluded in August with several competitive general-election matchups now rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters, leaving room for national dynamics or turnout variations to influence final outcomes in the November vote. The close clustering of probabilities around the leading options reflects uncertainty over how much Democratic overperformance can offset the map changes.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,491Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, enacted by the Republican legislature and signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in May 2026, reconfigured multiple Democratic-held districts by shifting boundaries to increase Republican lean, targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, and Jared Moskowitz while aiming for a 24-4 GOP advantage overall. This structural shift has anchored trader expectations for Democrats around four to six seats despite a national midterm environment that favors the opposition party through historical patterns and generic ballot trends. Primaries concluded in August with several competitive general-election matchups now rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters, leaving room for national dynamics or turnout variations to influence final outcomes in the November vote. The close clustering of probabilities around the leading options reflects uncertainty over how much Democratic overperformance can offset the map changes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Werden die Demokraten bei den Zwischenwahlen 2026 genau 5 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus in Arizona gewinnen?
60%
Ja
Werden die Demokraten bei den Zwischenwahlen 2026 in Pennsylvania genau 9 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?
37%
Ja
Werden die Demokraten bei den Zwischenwahlen 2026 in Iowa genau 2 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?
44%
Ja
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