Global seismic monitoring by the USGS recorded no earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher between August 3 and 9, 2026, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for zero events. The strongest activity included a 6.3 Mw event in the Philippines and another near New Zealand, plus a 6.1 Mw quake south of the Kermadec Islands on August 5—none crossing the threshold on the moment magnitude scale. This outcome fits typical weekly variability, as M6.5+ quakes occur roughly 1–2 times per week on average worldwide but cluster irregularly. Trader consensus reflects confirmed catalog data through the resolution window, with limited upside scenarios limited to potential late revisions in preliminary magnitudes or unreported aftershocks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben vom 3. bis 9. August mit einer Stärke von 6,5 oder mehr?
0 100.0%
5 <1%
1 <1%
2 <1%
$78,459 Vol.
$78,459 Vol.
0
Ja
1
Nein
2
Nein
3
Nein
4
Nein
5
Nein
>5
Nein
0 100.0%
5 <1%
1 <1%
2 <1%
$78,459 Vol.
$78,459 Vol.
0
Ja
1
Nein
2
Nein
3
Nein
4
Nein
5
Nein
>5
Nein
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Global seismic monitoring by the USGS recorded no earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher between August 3 and 9, 2026, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for zero events. The strongest activity included a 6.3 Mw event in the Philippines and another near New Zealand, plus a 6.1 Mw quake south of the Kermadec Islands on August 5—none crossing the threshold on the moment magnitude scale. This outcome fits typical weekly variability, as M6.5+ quakes occur roughly 1–2 times per week on average worldwide but cluster irregularly. Trader consensus reflects confirmed catalog data through the resolution window, with limited upside scenarios limited to potential late revisions in preliminary magnitudes or unreported aftershocks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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