Name: How long will SBF's sentence be?
Start: 2024-03-17T20:24:10.45866Z
End: 2024-03-28T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to fewer than 5 years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial.

This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5). 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

<5 years

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to between 5 (inclusive) and 10 (exclusive) years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial.

This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5). 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

5-10 years

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to between 10 (inclusive) and 20 (exclusive) years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial.

This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5). 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

10-20 years

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to between 20 (inclusive) and 30 (exclusive) years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial.

This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5). 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

20-30 years

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to between 30 (inclusive) and 40 (exclusive) years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial.

This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5). 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

30-40 years

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to between 40 (inclusive) and 50 (inclusive) years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial.

This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5). 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

40-50 years

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to more than 50 years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial. Note - if he is given a life sentence this market will resolve to "Yes."

This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5).

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

>50 years

How long will SBF's sentence be?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Yoon Suk Yeol zu mindestens 30 Jahren Gefängnis verurteilt werden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kang Sun-woo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kang Sun-woo bis zum 31. März im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Park Sung-jae bis zum 31. März im Gefängnis?

YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.

If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Jack Doherty zu keiner Gefängnisstrafe verurteilt werden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Kim Keon Hee bis zum 31. März zu einer Gefängnisstrafe verurteilt?

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jimmy Lai bis zum 31. Januar freigelassen?

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wurde BitBoy verurteilt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if s1mple, the professional counter-strike player, announces his retirement from professional competitive esports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement from s1mple that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred.

Breaks, periods of inactivity, transitions to another game, or transitions to streaming will not count unless s1mple explicitly announces his retirement from professional competitive esports. 

The resolution source will be official announcements from s1mple, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird s1mple bis zum 30. Juni zurücktreten?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Clavicular bis zum 31. Januar im Gefängnis?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.

If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Nicolás Maduro zu mindestens 60 Jahren Haft verurteilt werden?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Harvey Weinstein zu einer Freiheitsstrafe zwischen 20 und 30 Jahren verurteilt werden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stefon Diggs bis zum 31. März im Gefängnis?

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

Wurde Justin Aguiar vor 2027 wegen sexuellen Übergriffs verurteilt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wurde ein Richter des brasilianischen Obersten Bundesgerichts (STF) vor 2027 durch ein Amtsenthebungsverfahren abgesetzt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cilia Flores bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 aus der Haft entlassen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton bis zum 31. Januar im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Qatar by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Qatar if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Qatar for an extended period. 

Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify, he must actually move there. 

Visits or trips to Qatar will not count.

Imprisonment or detention in Qatar will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Wird Maduro bis zum 31. März nach Katar ins Exil geschickt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Jerome Powell vor 2027 im Gefängnis?

Becca Good is the widow of Renee Nicole Macklin Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who was shot by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026. According to the New York Times, the Justice Department launched an investigation to examine her ties to activist groups (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/us/prosecutors-doj-resignation-ice-shooting.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Becca Good by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wurde Becca Good bis zum 31. März belastet?

The Blast Bounty Winter 2026 Closed Qualifier is currently scheduled to take place from January 13 to 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the 8 teams that qualify for the BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 LAN Finals from the Closed Qualifier.

If the Blast Bounty Winter 2026 Closed Qualifier is postponed after January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other.” 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from BLAST (https://blast.tv); however, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/BLAST/Bounty/2026/Winter/Qualifier

Wird sich Team Spirit beim Blast Bounty Closed Qualifier qualifizieren?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jack Smith charged by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rami leaves KPop group Babymonster by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if Rami, Babymonster, YG Entertainment, or their official legal or social media representatives announce that Rami will no longer be a part of Babymonster. Such an announcement is sufficient to resolve this market regardless of when the departure takes effect. Only the announcement of a permanent departure will qualify. Hiatus, sabbatical, or other temporary leaves of absence will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be Rami, Babymonster, YG Entertainment, or their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting. 

Wird Rami Babymonster verlassen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Stefon Diggs bis zum 31. März verhaftet?

On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Marine Le Pen mit ihrem Einspruch Erfolg haben, um das Verbot der Wählbarkeit im Jahr 2026 aufzuheben?

On March 17, sitting Minnesota State Senator Justin Eichorn was arrested for allegedly soliciting sex from a 16 year old. You can read more about that here: https://minnesotareformer.com/2025/03/18/gop-state-sen-justin-eichorn-arrested-for-suspicion-of-soliciting-sex-with-a-16-year-old-girl/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to soliciting a minor sexual activity in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Eichorn is never charged with soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case, or otherwise all charges related to soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all solicitation of a minor charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


Senator Eichorn schuldig, ein Kind zur Prostitution aufgefordert zu haben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Stefon Diggs has been suspended by the NFL or his team for one or more NFL games during the 2025 NFL season, including any postseason/playoff games, by Feb 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The 2025 NFL season includes all regular-season games and postseason games.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the NFL and Diggs’ team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stefon Diggs diese Saison suspendiert?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell bis zum 31. März verhaftet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tim Walz bis zum 31. Dezember im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date. 

If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.

Wird die RSF Dilling bis zum 31. Januar einnehmen?

If Jia Yueting enters mainland China by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, "entering mainland China" is defined as Jia Yueting physically setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

Travel through airspace or territorial waters during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Jia Yueting bis zum 30. Juni nach Festlandchina einreisen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Netanjahu bis zum 31. März verhaftet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if FalleN, the professional Counter-Strike player, announces his retirement from professional competitive esports by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

An announcement from FalleN that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred. 

Breaks, periods of inactivity, transitions to another game, or transitions to streaming will not count unless FalleN explicitly announces his retirement from professional competitive esports.

The resolution source will be official announcements from FalleN; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird FalleN bis zum 1. Juni zurücktreten?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping and/or Peng Liyuan announce their intention to divorce between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Xi Jinping and/or Peng Liyuan, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Xi Jinping Scheidung vor 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sex tape featuring  Nick Fuentes, is made public between December 6, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying "sex tapes" must be video footage involving sexual acts directly depicting the genitals of any individual(s) shown. The video must be authentic, not animated or AI-altered.

The primary resolution source will be publicly released video, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nick Fuentes Sexvideo bis zum 31. März veröffentlicht?

On September 18, 2025, Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson announced that eight Minneapolis defendants were indicted for defrauding Minnesota’s housing stabilization program. It is rumored that some of these funds were used to fund the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab. You can read more about that here: https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab?.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Minnesota defendants who were indicted for fraud in this case are officially deported from the United States by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of any of the indicted persons from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.


Somalier, die die Regierung betrogen haben, um Terroristen zu finanzieren, abgeschoben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date. 

If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.

Wird die RSF Kadugli bis zum 31. Januar einnehmen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tom Lee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How long will SBF's sentence be?

<5 years
$197,747 Umsatz
No

5-10 years
$234,856 Umsatz
No

10-20 years
$178,660 Umsatz
No

20-30 years
$186,737 Umsatz
Yes

30-40 years
$124,489 Umsatz
No

40-50 years
$166,929 Umsatz
No

>50 years
$170,067 Umsatz
No

Marktkontext

How long will SBF's sentence be?

Regeln

How long will SBF's sentence be?

Marktkontext

How long will SBF's sentence be?

Über

How long will SBF's sentence be?

<5 years$197,747 UmsatzNo

5-10 years$234,856 UmsatzNo

10-20 years$178,660 UmsatzNo

20-30 years$186,737 UmsatzYes

30-40 years$124,489 UmsatzNo

40-50 years$166,929 UmsatzNo

>50 years$170,067 UmsatzNo

Marktkontext

How long will SBF's sentence be?

Regeln

How long will SBF's sentence be?

Marktkontext

How long will SBF's sentence be?

Über

<5 years
$197,747 Umsatz
No

5-10 years
$234,856 Umsatz
No

10-20 years
$178,660 Umsatz
No

20-30 years
$186,737 Umsatz
Yes

30-40 years
$124,489 Umsatz
No

40-50 years
$166,929 Umsatz
No

>50 years
$170,067 Umsatz
No