Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 seizures of Mokha port and Perim Island near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, have materially increased their ability to threaten Saudi crude shipments that now rely heavily on this route as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has climbed above $105 per barrel on these developments and related attacks on Saudi infrastructure and tankers, embedding a higher risk premium into energy benchmarks and tanker freight rates. Parallel Iranian actions disrupting Hormuz traffic have compounded global supply concerns, while shipping volumes through the strait have fluctuated sharply. Key near-term catalysts include potential further Houthi strikes on Saudi energy assets, U.S. or Saudi military responses, and any de-escalation talks that could alter the probability of a tanker seizure before year-end.