The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski amid a 15-candidate field that includes George Galloway. Recent local polling showing Labour at 34% and Greens at 30% has driven trader consensus toward narrow Labour margins or an upset, while the split of the left-leaning vote and historical Green gains in the constituency have kept “another candidate wins” as the leading outcome. National attention on Andy Burnham’s first by-election test and Polanski’s high-profile campaign have reinforced uncertainty over the final vote share.
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