The by-election on 8 October 2026 in Keir Starmer’s former seat features Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, with 15 candidates on the ballot including George Galloway for the Workers Party. Projections from models such as PollCheck and Electoral Calculus place Green support between roughly 24% and 38%, up sharply from 10.4% in 2024, driven by narrower gaps in the May 2026 Camden local elections and lingering left-wing dissatisfaction over issues like Gaza. Trader pricing clusters in the 25-35% range because by-election turnout, the extent of any national Labour momentum under Andy Burnham, and vote splitting among left-leaning options remain uncertain, with no fresh constituency polls available to narrow the range. Late shifts in mobilization or residual independent support could still separate outcomes.