Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) on April 3, driven by finalized observational data from the station's METAR reports and Wunderground historical records confirming the peak reached 30°C amid mostly sunny conditions with light winds. INMET's April outlook had flagged above-average temperatures due to persistent high-pressure systems suppressing clouds and allowing daytime heating, aligning with historical April averages of 25–26°C but elevated by recent stable anticyclonic flow. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-processing revisions from official sources like INMET if overlooked hourly peaks emerge, though model consensus and real-time satellite imagery showed no potential for exceeding 30°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 3?
30°C 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$99,272 Vol.
$99,272 Vol.
3. Apr. 2026
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$99,272 Vol.
$99,272 Vol.
3. Apr. 2026
30°C
$13,448 Vol.
100%
31°C
$17,642 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$6,936 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$5,216 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$5,872 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) on April 3, driven by finalized observational data from the station's METAR reports and Wunderground historical records confirming the peak reached 30°C amid mostly sunny conditions with light winds. INMET's April outlook had flagged above-average temperatures due to persistent high-pressure systems suppressing clouds and allowing daytime heating, aligning with historical April averages of 25–26°C but elevated by recent stable anticyclonic flow. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-processing revisions from official sources like INMET if overlooked hourly peaks emerge, though model consensus and real-time satellite imagery showed no potential for exceeding 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
Volumen
$99,272Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 3:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Einspruchsfrist
Endgültig
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) on April 3, driven by finalized observational data from the station's METAR reports and Wunderground historical records confirming the peak reached 30°C amid mostly sunny conditions with light winds. INMET's April outlook had flagged above-average temperatures due to persistent high-pressure systems suppressing clouds and allowing daytime heating, aligning with historical April averages of 25–26°C but elevated by recent stable anticyclonic flow. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-processing revisions from official sources like INMET if overlooked hourly peaks emerge, though model consensus and real-time satellite imagery showed no potential for exceeding 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$99,272Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 3:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Einspruchsfrist
Endgültig
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) on April 3, driven by finalized observational data from the station's METAR reports and Wunderground historical records confirming the peak reached 30°C amid mostly sunny conditions with light winds. INMET's April outlook had flagged above-average temperatures due to persistent high-pressure systems suppressing clouds and allowing daytime heating, aligning with historical April averages of 25–26°C but elevated by recent stable anticyclonic flow. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-processing revisions from official sources like INMET if overlooked hourly peaks emerge, though model consensus and real-time satellite imagery showed no potential for exceeding 30°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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