Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBürgermeisterwahl in Greater Manchester: Marge des Sieges
Bürgermeisterwahl in Greater Manchester: Marge des Sieges
Bev Craig 15%+ 100.0%
Bev Craig 10–15 % <1%
Bev Craig 5–10 % <1%
Bev Craig <5% <1%
$14,751 Vol.
$14,751 Vol.
30. Juli 2026
Bev Craig 15%+
Ja
Bev Craig 10–15 %
Nein
Bev Craig 5–10 %
Nein
Bev Craig <5%
Nein
Sian Astley <5%
Nein
Sian Astley 5%+
Nein
Anderes
Nein
Bev Craig 15%+ 100.0%
Bev Craig 10–15 % <1%
Bev Craig 5–10 % <1%
Bev Craig <5% <1%
$14,751 Vol.
$14,751 Vol.
30. Juli 2026
Bev Craig 15%+
$7,660 Vol.
Ja
Bev Craig 10–15 %
$983 Vol.
Nein
Bev Craig 5–10 %
$1,330 Vol.
Nein
Bev Craig <5%
$1,466 Vol.
Nein
Sian Astley <5%
$731 Vol.
Nein
Sian Astley 5%+
$1,430 Vol.
Nein
Anderes
$1,150 Vol.
Nein
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Markt eröffnet: Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volumen
$14,751Enddatum
30. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volumen
$14,751Enddatum
30. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 3, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Bev Craig secured a decisive 66.3% to 33.7% victory over Reform UK's Sian Astley in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election under the supplementary vote system. Labour's entrenched regional dominance as the successor to Andy Burnham drove first-preference support of 47.1%, with transfers from eliminated Green, Conservative, and other candidates pushing the final margin well beyond 15 points despite turnout near 25%. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome near certainty because certified results show a gap exceeding 32 points and few remaining verification steps. Late recounts in individual wards or formal challenges represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the certified margin before final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
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