Thomas Chalifoux holds the strongest position among traders in Florida’s 9th Congressional District Republican primary, scheduled for August 18, 2026, with a 56% implied probability. Marcus Carter follows at 23.4%, while Jorge Malavet, Howard Steven Rance, and Justin Story trail further behind. The district’s new boundaries, which favor Republicans based on recent voting patterns, have drawn multiple candidates to the open primary. Chalifoux previously contested the seat in 2024, potentially contributing to his lead in the absence of recent public polling or major campaign developments that would shift consensus. The primary remains several weeks away, leaving room for late movement among voters in Osceola and southern Orange counties.