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Politik·Globale Wahlen

Farrer-By-Election-Sieger

icon for Farrer-By-Election-Sieger
Politik·Globale Wahlen

Farrer-By-Election-Sieger

David Farley 85%

Michelle Milthorpe 16%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Polymarket

$257,227 Vol.

David Farley 85%

Michelle Milthorpe 16%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Polymarket

$257,227 Vol.

icon for David Farley

David Farley

$27,524 Vol.

85%

icon for Michelle Milthorpe

Michelle Milthorpe

$55,525 Vol.

16%

icon for Raissa Butkowski

Raissa Butkowski

$12,745 Vol.

1%

icon for Rebecca Scriven

Rebecca Scriven

$110,144 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helen Dalton

Helen Dalton

$51,288 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus heavily favors One Nation candidate David Farley at 84.5% implied probability to win the Farrer by-election on May 9, reflecting leaked internal Liberal polling showing his lead in this traditionally safe Coalition electorate vacated by Sussan Ley's resignation. Strong pre-poll turnout signals voter appetite for change amid Coalition disunity, with Nationals and Liberals directing preferences toward Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe, who polls second at 15.5% after a 20% primary vote swing last election but faces headwinds from her Climate 200 ties and net zero skepticism. Minor candidates Raissa Butkowski (Liberal, 0.7%), Rebecca Scriven, and Helen Dalton trail due to fragmented support, as preferential voting flows bolster Farley's path despite recent One Nation infighting and a polling booth scuffle.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volumen
$257,227
Enddatum
9. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus heavily favors One Nation candidate David Farley at 84.5% implied probability to win the Farrer by-election on May 9, reflecting leaked internal Liberal polling showing his lead in this traditionally safe Coalition electorate vacated by Sussan Ley's resignation. Strong pre-poll turnout signals voter appetite for change amid Coalition disunity, with Nationals and Liberals directing preferences toward Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe, who polls second at 15.5% after a 20% primary vote swing last election but faces headwinds from her Climate 200 ties and net zero skepticism. Minor candidates Raissa Butkowski (Liberal, 0.7%), Rebecca Scriven, and Helen Dalton trail due to fragmented support, as preferential voting flows bolster Farley's path despite recent One Nation infighting and a polling booth scuffle.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volumen
$257,227
Enddatum
9. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Farrer-By-Election-Sieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „David Farley" mit 85%, gefolgt von „Michelle Milthorpe" mit 16%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 85¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 85% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Farrer-By-Election-Sieger" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $257.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 17, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Farrer-By-Election-Sieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Farrer-By-Election-Sieger" ist „David Farley" mit 85%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 85% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Michelle Milthorpe" mit 16%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Farrer-By-Election-Sieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.