Mercedes leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position after George Russell topped FP2 and FP3 timesheets at Suzuka with laps of 1:28.567 and 1:28.549, respectively, showcasing superior single-lap pace on the high-speed, aero-sensitive circuit. Ferrari sits at 26.5% following consistent top-three finishes from Charles Leclerc in all sessions, bolstered by recent chassis upgrades aiding straightline speed. Aston Martin (14.4%) and Williams (14.0%) reflect Fernando Alonso's P9 in FP3 and solid midfield showings from Alex Albon, while Red Bull's 1.8% lags despite Max Verstappen's P2s, as Mercedes' quali simulations appear sharper amid dry conditions and no major reliability issues reported. Qualifying Saturday determines the grid.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMercedes 70%
Ferrari 34%
Aston Martin 14.3%
Williams 14.0%
Mercedes
70%
Ferrari
27%
Aston Martin
14%
Williams
14%
Audi Revolut
10%
Mclaren Mastercard
10%
Tgr Haas
2%
Alpine
2%
Red Bull
2%
Racing Bulls
2%
Cadillac
1%
Mercedes 70%
Ferrari 34%
Aston Martin 14.3%
Williams 14.0%
Mercedes
70%
Ferrari
27%
Aston Martin
14%
Williams
14%
Audi Revolut
10%
Mclaren Mastercard
10%
Tgr Haas
2%
Alpine
2%
Red Bull
2%
Racing Bulls
2%
Cadillac
1%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position after George Russell topped FP2 and FP3 timesheets at Suzuka with laps of 1:28.567 and 1:28.549, respectively, showcasing superior single-lap pace on the high-speed, aero-sensitive circuit. Ferrari sits at 26.5% following consistent top-three finishes from Charles Leclerc in all sessions, bolstered by recent chassis upgrades aiding straightline speed. Aston Martin (14.4%) and Williams (14.0%) reflect Fernando Alonso's P9 in FP3 and solid midfield showings from Alex Albon, while Red Bull's 1.8% lags despite Max Verstappen's P2s, as Mercedes' quali simulations appear sharper amid dry conditions and no major reliability issues reported. Qualifying Saturday determines the grid.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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