**Recent affirmations of the EU’s top-tier ratings underpin the 89.5% market-implied probability against a downgrade before 2027.** Major agencies including Moody’s (Aaa/Stable, September 2026), Scope (AAA/Stable, September 2026), and Fitch (AAA/Stable) have maintained these assessments, citing strong backing from highly rated member states that account for a large share of GNI contributions and the EU’s legal obligation to service debt. Although outstanding EU borrowing reached €739 billion at end-2025 and could approach €1 trillion by 2027 amid NGEU disbursements, Ukraine support, and defense programs, the Stable outlooks reflect adequate liquidity buffers and institutional safeguards. Fiscal pressures in France, where DBRS shifted the trend to Negative in September while holding the AA rating, have widened spreads but have not triggered broader sovereign or supranational downgrades. Traders appear to price limited near-term risk given these confirmations, with key catalysts including France’s 2027 budget process and negotiations on the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework.