Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a near-certain 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 200-219 times on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24 12:00 PM ET, driven by real-time trackers logging 184 posts through the first seven days at a steady daily average of 26, with April 24 activity—featuring viral replies on AI reasoning, political maps, and cultural critiques—projecting a final tally comfortably within range before cutoff. This reflects Musk's predictable high-volume tweeting cadence, amplified by ongoing engagement on Grok advancements and social commentary, mirroring historical patterns where he averages 25-35 posts daily amid pop culture buzz. An upset would require an unprecedented final-hour spree exceeding 35 additional posts, improbable given time constraints and his typical rhythm, though late-breaking news could spur minor shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert200-219 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,686,871 Vol.
$11,686,871 Vol.
<20
Nein
20-39
Nein
40-59
Nein
60-79
Nein
80-99
Nein
100-119
Nein
120-139
Nein
140–159
Nein
160–179
Nein
180-199
Nein
200-219
Ja
220–239
Nein
240-259
Nein
260-279
Nein
280-299
Nein
300-319
Nein
320–339
Nein
340–359
Nein
360-379
Nein
380-399
Nein
400-419
Nein
420-439
Nein
440-459
Nein
460-479
Nein
480–499
Nein
500-519
Nein
520-539
Nein
540-559
Nein
560-579
Nein
580+
Nein
200-219 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,686,871 Vol.
$11,686,871 Vol.
<20
Nein
20-39
Nein
40-59
Nein
60-79
Nein
80-99
Nein
100-119
Nein
120-139
Nein
140–159
Nein
160–179
Nein
180-199
Nein
200-219
Ja
220–239
Nein
240-259
Nein
260-279
Nein
280-299
Nein
300-319
Nein
320–339
Nein
340–359
Nein
360-379
Nein
380-399
Nein
400-419
Nein
420-439
Nein
440-459
Nein
460-479
Nein
480–499
Nein
500-519
Nein
520-539
Nein
540-559
Nein
560-579
Nein
580+
Nein
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a near-certain 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 200-219 times on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24 12:00 PM ET, driven by real-time trackers logging 184 posts through the first seven days at a steady daily average of 26, with April 24 activity—featuring viral replies on AI reasoning, political maps, and cultural critiques—projecting a final tally comfortably within range before cutoff. This reflects Musk's predictable high-volume tweeting cadence, amplified by ongoing engagement on Grok advancements and social commentary, mirroring historical patterns where he averages 25-35 posts daily amid pop culture buzz. An upset would require an unprecedented final-hour spree exceeding 35 additional posts, improbable given time constraints and his typical rhythm, though late-breaking news could spur minor shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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