Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10 to April 17, 2026, driven by live tracking data from tools like XTracker confirming a final tally of 304 posts as of early April 17 EST, with the period now at 100% completion. This reflects his steady social media engagement pace of 43 posts per day—consistent with recent patterns amid viral discussions on Grok 4.3 beta capabilities, Neuralink advancements, and AI-driven universal income debates—without notable spikes or lulls over the past week. While overwhelming precursor counts cement the frontrunner, a realistic upset would require rare resolution disputes over post inclusions or uncounted replies, though traders see negligible risk given verified tallies and historical counting precedents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert300–319 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$13,942,624 Vol.
$13,942,624 Vol.
<20
Nein
20-39
Nein
40-59
Nein
60-79
Nein
80-99
Nein
100-119
Nein
120-139
Nein
140-159
Nein
160-179
Nein
180–199
Nein
200-219
Nein
220-239
Nein
240–259
Nein
260-279
Nein
280–299
Nein
300–319
Ja
320-339
Nein
340-359
Nein
360-379
Nein
380-399
Nein
400-419
Nein
420-439
Nein
440-459
Nein
460-479
Nein
480-499
Nein
500–519
Nein
520-539
Nein
540-559
Nein
560-579
Nein
580+
Nein
300–319 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$13,942,624 Vol.
$13,942,624 Vol.
<20
Nein
20-39
Nein
40-59
Nein
60-79
Nein
80-99
Nein
100-119
Nein
120-139
Nein
140-159
Nein
160-179
Nein
180–199
Nein
200-219
Nein
220-239
Nein
240–259
Nein
260-279
Nein
280–299
Nein
300–319
Ja
320-339
Nein
340-359
Nein
360-379
Nein
380-399
Nein
400-419
Nein
420-439
Nein
440-459
Nein
460-479
Nein
480-499
Nein
500–519
Nein
520-539
Nein
540-559
Nein
560-579
Nein
580+
Nein
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10 to April 17, 2026, driven by live tracking data from tools like XTracker confirming a final tally of 304 posts as of early April 17 EST, with the period now at 100% completion. This reflects his steady social media engagement pace of 43 posts per day—consistent with recent patterns amid viral discussions on Grok 4.3 beta capabilities, Neuralink advancements, and AI-driven universal income debates—without notable spikes or lulls over the past week. While overwhelming precursor counts cement the frontrunner, a realistic upset would require rare resolution disputes over post inclusions or uncounted replies, though traders see negligible risk given verified tallies and historical counting precedents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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