Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sustained upward pressure on eurozone energy prices, prompting the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points in September 2026 to 2.50 percent and revise inflation projections higher for 2027 and 2028. Staff forecasts now show headline inflation averaging 3.0 percent in 2026 amid resilient growth and anchored but elevated long-term expectations. Traders price a further 25-basis-point hike by December as the consensus path, reflecting data-dependent signals from policymakers who see risks skewed to the upside without committing to a specific terminal rate. Recent Reuters surveys align with this view, showing most economists anticipating the December move while noting moderating underlying trends could limit additional tightening.