Name: Biden D-Nom replacement?
Start: 2024-07-21T19:06:39.113278Z
End: 2024-08-22T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the likelihood of Joe Biden being replaced as the Democratic nominee for the presidential election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elizabeth Warren wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Elizabeth Warren

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Manchin wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Joe Manchin

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Stacey Abrams wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Stacey Abrams

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mark Cuban wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Mark Cuban 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

John Fetterman

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amy Klobuchar wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Amy Klobuchar

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a man other than Wes Moore, Pete Buttigieg, Mark Kelly, Robert Kennedy Jr., Gavin Newsom, Mark Cuban, Josh Shapiro, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, Roy Cooper, Raphael Warnock, J. B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown, or John Fetterman wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other Man

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Robert Kennedy Jr.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a woman other than Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, Gretchen Whitmer, Elizabeth Warren, Stacey Abrams, Amy Klobuchar or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other Woman

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

 Kamala Harris

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gavin Newsom wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Gavin Newsom

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gretchen Whitmer wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Gretchen Whitmer

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Josh Shapiro wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

 Josh Shapiro

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michelle Obama wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

 Michelle Obama

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Buttigieg wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Pete Buttigieg

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Hillary Clinton

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitt Romney wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Mitt Romney

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mark Kelly wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Mark Kelly

This market will resolve to “Yes” if J. B. Pritzker wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

J. B. Pritzker

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Beshear wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Andy Beshear

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Wes Moore wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wes Moore

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Roy Cooper wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Roy Cooper

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raphael Warnock wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Raphael Warnock

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bernie Sanders wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Bernie Sanders 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sherrod Brown wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Sherrod Brown

Biden D-Nom replacement? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Gavin Newsom die demokratische Präsidentschaftsnominierung 2028 gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Stefany Shaheen die demokratische Kandidatin für NH-01 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Andy Levin der demokratische Kandidat für MI-11 sein?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird J.D. Vance die republikanische Präsidentschaftsnominierung 2028 gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird John Cavanaugh der demokratische Kandidat für NE-02 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Wesley Bell der demokratische Kandidat für MO-01 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Shri Thanedar der demokratische Kandidat für MI-13 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Nate Blouin der demokratische Kandidat für UT-01 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Micah Lasher der demokratische Kandidat für NY-12 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Shannon Bird die demokratische Kandidatin für CO-08 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Matthew Dunlap der demokratische Kandidat für ME-02 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Ilhan Omar die demokratische Kandidatin für MN-05 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Ritchie Torres der demokratische Kandidat für NY-15 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Brad Lander der demokratische Kandidat für NY-10 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 special election, scheduled for April 16, 2026. The Democratic primary will take place on February 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Tom Malinowski der demokratische Kandidat für die Sonderwahl im Wahlkreis NJ-11 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Dan Koh der demokratische Kandidat für MA-06 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Elaine Luria die demokratische Kandidatin für VA-02 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Claire Valdez die demokratische Kandidatin für NY-07 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Grace Meng die demokratische Kandidatin für NY-06 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Matt Klein der demokratische Kandidat für MN-02 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Sharif Street der demokratische Kandidat für PA-03 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Valerie Foushee die demokratische Kandidatin für NC-04 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Daniel Biss der demokratische Kandidat für IL-09 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Adriano Espaillat der demokratische Kandidat für NY-13 sein?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Cait Conley die demokratische Kandidatin für NY-17 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Laura Gillen die demokratische Kandidatin für NY-04 sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Henry Cuellar der demokratische Kandidat für TX-28 sein?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Liz Cheney vor 2027 eine Präsidentschaftskandidatur ankündigen?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird John Hickenlooper der demokratische Kandidat für den Senat in Colorado sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Junaid Ahmed der demokratische Kandidat für IL-08 sein?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Ohio.

If no 2026 Ohio Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Ohio Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird Sherrod Brown der demokratische Kandidat für den Senat in Ohio sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Jared Moskowitz der demokratische Kandidat für FL-23 sein?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana.

If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird Reilly Neill die demokratische Kandidatin für den Senat in Montana sein?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird La Shawn Ford der demokratische Kandidat für IL-07 sein?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird Mallory McMorrow die demokratische Vorwahl in Michigan 2026 gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Sidney Moore der demokratische Kandidat für IL-02 sein?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird Peggy Flanagan die demokratische Kandidatin für den Senat in Minnesota sein?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Trump Kevin Warsh als den nächsten Vorsitzenden der Federal Reserve nominieren?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Delaware.

If no 2026 Delaware Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Delaware Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird Chris Coons der demokratische Kandidat für den Senat in Delaware sein?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Wird Donald Trump bis zum 30. Juni 2026 einen neuen Kandidaten für den Vorsitz der Federal Reserve nominieren?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Wird Donald Trump keinen neuen Kandidaten für den Vorsitz der Federal Reserve vor Februar 2026 bekannt geben?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina.

If no 2026 North Carolina Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the North Carolina Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird Roy Cooper der demokratische Kandidat für den Senat in North Carolina sein?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Werden die Republikaner das Senatsrennen in Ohio 2026 gewinnen?

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird die Zahl der demokratischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 24 und 27 liegen (einschließlich)?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Wird Brinker Harding der republikanische Kandidat für NE-02 sein?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Werden Amtsinhaber der Demokraten im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen vier und sechs Fällen gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Wird James Talarico der demokratische Kandidat für den Senat in Texas sein?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Kamala Harris
$1,568,672 Umsatz
Yes

Michelle Obama
$1,233,357 Umsatz
No

Hillary Clinton
$982,792 Umsatz
No

Wes Moore
$904,654 Umsatz
No

Pete Buttigieg
$426,398 Umsatz
No

Gretchen Whitmer
$653,406 Umsatz
No

Josh Shapiro
$450,198 Umsatz
No

Gavin Newsom
$509,276 Umsatz
No

Mark Kelly
$432,720 Umsatz
No

Roy Cooper
$307,535 Umsatz
No

J. B. Pritzker
$594,267 Umsatz
No

Andy Beshear
$1,183,012 Umsatz
No

Raphael Warnock
$1,146,612 Umsatz
No

Bernie Sanders
$1,353,141 Umsatz
No

Sherrod Brown
$1,161,078 Umsatz
No

Elizabeth Warren
$980,244 Umsatz
No

Stacey Abrams
$449,731 Umsatz
No

Mark Cuban
$899,685 Umsatz
No

Amy Klobuchar
$1,437,505 Umsatz
No

Robert Kennedy Jr.
$589,866 Umsatz
No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$1,112,507 Umsatz
No

Mitt Romney
$1,549,380 Umsatz
No

Joe Manchin
$440,459 Umsatz
No

John Fetterman
$643,493 Umsatz
No

Other Man
$1,263,797 Umsatz
No

Other Woman
$287,487 Umsatz
No

Marktkontext

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Regeln

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Marktkontext

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Über

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Kamala Harris$1,568,672 UmsatzYes

Michelle Obama$1,233,357 UmsatzNo

Hillary Clinton$982,792 UmsatzNo

Wes Moore$904,654 UmsatzNo

Pete Buttigieg$426,398 UmsatzNo

Gretchen Whitmer$653,406 UmsatzNo

Josh Shapiro$450,198 UmsatzNo

Gavin Newsom$509,276 UmsatzNo

Mark Kelly$432,720 UmsatzNo

Roy Cooper$307,535 UmsatzNo

J. B. Pritzker$594,267 UmsatzNo

Andy Beshear$1,183,012 UmsatzNo

Raphael Warnock$1,146,612 UmsatzNo

Bernie Sanders $1,353,141 UmsatzNo

Sherrod Brown$1,161,078 UmsatzNo

Elizabeth Warren$980,244 UmsatzNo

Stacey Abrams$449,731 UmsatzNo

Mark Cuban $899,685 UmsatzNo

Amy Klobuchar$1,437,505 UmsatzNo

Robert Kennedy Jr.$589,866 UmsatzNo

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez$1,112,507 UmsatzNo

Mitt Romney$1,549,380 UmsatzNo

Joe Manchin$440,459 UmsatzNo

John Fetterman$643,493 UmsatzNo

Other Man$1,263,797 UmsatzNo

Other Woman$287,487 UmsatzNo

Marktkontext

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Regeln

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Marktkontext

Biden D-Nom replacement?

Über

Kamala Harris
$1,568,672 Umsatz
Yes

Michelle Obama
$1,233,357 Umsatz
No

Hillary Clinton
$982,792 Umsatz
No

Wes Moore
$904,654 Umsatz
No

Pete Buttigieg
$426,398 Umsatz
No

Gretchen Whitmer
$653,406 Umsatz
No

Josh Shapiro
$450,198 Umsatz
No

Gavin Newsom
$509,276 Umsatz
No

Mark Kelly
$432,720 Umsatz
No

Roy Cooper
$307,535 Umsatz
No

J. B. Pritzker
$594,267 Umsatz
No

Andy Beshear
$1,183,012 Umsatz
No

Raphael Warnock
$1,146,612 Umsatz
No

Bernie Sanders
$1,353,141 Umsatz
No

Sherrod Brown
$1,161,078 Umsatz
No

Elizabeth Warren
$980,244 Umsatz
No

Stacey Abrams
$449,731 Umsatz
No

Mark Cuban
$899,685 Umsatz
No

Amy Klobuchar
$1,437,505 Umsatz
No

Robert Kennedy Jr.
$589,866 Umsatz
No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$1,112,507 Umsatz
No

Mitt Romney
$1,549,380 Umsatz
No

Joe Manchin
$440,459 Umsatz
No

John Fetterman
$643,493 Umsatz
No

Other Man
$1,263,797 Umsatz
No

Other Woman
$287,487 Umsatz
No