Colorado voters will decide Initiative 109 on the November 2026 ballot, a measure that would require school and college athletic teams to be designated by biological sex and limit transgender student participation accordingly. The initiative qualified after Protect Kids Colorado submitted more than 168,000 signatures earlier this year, placing the question directly before voters in a state with existing transgender protections. Opposition groups have launched campaigns against it, while similar measures appear on ballots in Arizona and Washington, reflecting broader national debates over school sports eligibility. With the election roughly three months away, trader consensus at 55 percent for passage incorporates the qualification milestone, organized support and resistance, and Colorado's electoral context without established polling benchmarks yet available.