Several open seats from term limits in Florida and Georgia, alongside Wisconsin's retirement and competitive dynamics in Texas and Iowa, position these states among the most uncertain for November 2026. Recent polling shows Georgia's matchup in a statistical tie, while Texas features narrow leads for the incumbent amid shifting voter priorities on affordability and turnout. Forecasters rate multiple contests as toss-ups or leans, reflecting balanced partisan leans, primary outcomes, and midterm national conditions that keep margins tight. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races due to their potential for sub-3-point finishes, with developments like candidate consolidation, economic data releases, or late endorsements likely to widen or narrow gaps ahead of Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWisconsin 12.6%
Iowa 11.9%
New Hampshire 11.9%
Ohio 11.8%
$10,982 Vol.
$10,982 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Wisconsin
13%
Iowa
12%
New Hampshire
18%
Ohio
12%
Texas
19%
Kansas
10%
Georgia
10%
Vermont
9%
Florida
21%
Nevada
7%
Michigan
5%
Arizona
4%
Oregon
4%
Alaska
3%
Maine
3%
Minnesota
3%
Colorado
2%
New Mexico
2%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Iowa 11.9%
New Hampshire 11.9%
Ohio 11.8%
$10,982 Vol.
$10,982 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Wisconsin
$965 Vol.
13%
Iowa
$1,475 Vol.
12%
New Hampshire
$250 Vol.
18%
Ohio
$412 Vol.
12%
Texas
$1,564 Vol.
19%
Kansas
$1,571 Vol.
10%
Georgia
$292 Vol.
10%
Vermont
$171 Vol.
9%
Florida
$213 Vol.
21%
Nevada
$1,986 Vol.
7%
Michigan
$324 Vol.
5%
Arizona
$259 Vol.
4%
Oregon
$314 Vol.
4%
Alaska
$201 Vol.
3%
Maine
$350 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$209 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$238 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$189 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open seats from term limits in Florida and Georgia, alongside Wisconsin's retirement and competitive dynamics in Texas and Iowa, position these states among the most uncertain for November 2026. Recent polling shows Georgia's matchup in a statistical tie, while Texas features narrow leads for the incumbent amid shifting voter priorities on affordability and turnout. Forecasters rate multiple contests as toss-ups or leans, reflecting balanced partisan leans, primary outcomes, and midterm national conditions that keep margins tight. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races due to their potential for sub-3-point finishes, with developments like candidate consolidation, economic data releases, or late endorsements likely to widen or narrow gaps ahead of Election Day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,982Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open seats from term limits in Florida and Georgia, alongside Wisconsin's retirement and competitive dynamics in Texas and Iowa, position these states among the most uncertain for November 2026. Recent polling shows Georgia's matchup in a statistical tie, while Texas features narrow leads for the incumbent amid shifting voter priorities on affordability and turnout. Forecasters rate multiple contests as toss-ups or leans, reflecting balanced partisan leans, primary outcomes, and midterm national conditions that keep margins tight. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races due to their potential for sub-3-point finishes, with developments like candidate consolidation, economic data releases, or late endorsements likely to widen or narrow gaps ahead of Election Day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$10,982Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several open seats from term limits in Florida and Georgia, alongside Wisconsin's retirement and competitive dynamics in Texas and Iowa, position these states among the most uncertain for November 2026. Recent polling shows Georgia's matchup in a statistical tie, while Texas features narrow leads for the incumbent amid shifting voter priorities on affordability and turnout. Forecasters rate multiple contests as toss-ups or leans, reflecting balanced partisan leans, primary outcomes, and midterm national conditions that keep margins tight. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races due to their potential for sub-3-point finishes, with developments like candidate consolidation, economic data releases, or late endorsements likely to widen or narrow gaps ahead of Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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