Trader consensus prices a draw at 56.5% for Fabiano Caruana vs. Matthias Bluebaum in Round 5 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting Bluebaum's reputation as a solid defender with 2/4 points so far, including a recent draw against Praggnanandhaa, and the high draw rates typical in elite classical chess. Caruana, at 38.5%, benefits from his world No. 3 Elo near 2800, six prior Candidates appearances, and strong tournament form at 2.5/4 despite a critical Round 4 loss to sole leader Javokhir Sindarov, positioning him as the favorite despite black pieces. Bluebaum's 6.5% underscores his underdog role, with limited head-to-head edges against Caruana. Yesterday's Round 4 results heightened pressure on Caruana to rebound amid tight standings.
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If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 1, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...

If Fabiano Caruana wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 1, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a draw at 56.5% for Fabiano Caruana vs. Matthias Bluebaum in Round 5 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting Bluebaum's reputation as a solid defender with 2/4 points so far, including a recent draw against Praggnanandhaa, and the high draw rates typical in elite classical chess. Caruana, at 38.5%, benefits from his world No. 3 Elo near 2800, six prior Candidates appearances, and strong tournament form at 2.5/4 despite a critical Round 4 loss to sole leader Javokhir Sindarov, positioning him as the favorite despite black pieces. Bluebaum's 6.5% underscores his underdog role, with limited head-to-head edges against Caruana. Yesterday's Round 4 results heightened pressure on Caruana to rebound amid tight standings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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