Canada maintains standard, uniformly applied tolls on the Welland Canal through the jointly managed St. Lawrence Seaway, with 2026 rates published for all commercial vessels regardless of flag or origin. No official Canadian announcement, legislative action, or state-owned enterprise statement has introduced new, US-targeted fees by the September 30 deadline, despite bilateral trade friction including U.S. executive measures on Great Lakes nomenclature. Seaway operations continue without disruption, supported by longstanding treaty commitments that keep the waterway open for U.S. commerce. The absence of primary-source signals, combined with the narrow remaining window, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the 98.1% implied probability for No. A sudden last-minute policy shift or retaliatory measure tied to ongoing negotiations remains a low-probability scenario that could still alter the outcome before resolution.