The Bank of Japan’s recent September 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate, combined with officials’ emphasis on evaluating the effects of prior tightening on financial conditions and domestic demand, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 29-30 meeting. Recent Tankan survey results and Tokyo CPI data have reinforced the view that underlying inflation has reached the 2% target without accelerating sharply, reducing the case for an immediate follow-up move while supporting expectations of a December adjustment. Forward-looking signals from Governor Ueda and the quarterly Outlook report due after the meeting are likely to affirm gradual normalization without committing to near-term action, consistent with the modest 10.5% odds attached to a 25-basis-point increase.