**Elevated UK inflation expectations driven by persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict form the core driver behind the 94% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of England rate increase at the November 5 meeting.** Wholesale natural gas and oil costs have pushed CPI projections toward 3.7% by late 2026 and above 4% in early 2027, reversing earlier expectations of holds through year-end. Recent GDP resilience and hawkish signals from MPC members have reinforced trader consensus, pricing in the first hike since 2023 while limiting odds of no change to 6.5%. The November Monetary Policy Report and fresh inflation data could still shift positioning if energy prices moderate sharply or second-round effects remain subdued.