The Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% underscores the dominant factors behind the 90% market-implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have kept headline CPI near 3% in recent months, including July 2026 data, while core measures remain anchored around 2%, allowing policymakers to look through temporary pressures. At the same time, new U.S. tariffs introduce downside risks to growth and investment, creating a balanced risk profile that favors maintaining the current stance. With the next Monetary Policy Report due alongside the October decision, trader consensus reflected in these odds anticipates no immediate policy shift absent clearer evidence of persistent inflation or a sharper economic slowdown.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 90.0%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 5.2%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 4.0%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$49,362 Vol.
$49,362 Vol.
27. Okt. 2026
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
5%
Keine Änderung
90%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
4%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 90.0%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 5.2%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 4.0%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$49,362 Vol.
$49,362 Vol.
27. Okt. 2026
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$3,694 Vol.
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$10,823 Vol.
5%
Keine Änderung
$23,309 Vol.
90%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$7,686 Vol.
4%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$3,849 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% underscores the dominant factors behind the 90% market-implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have kept headline CPI near 3% in recent months, including July 2026 data, while core measures remain anchored around 2%, allowing policymakers to look through temporary pressures. At the same time, new U.S. tariffs introduce downside risks to growth and investment, creating a balanced risk profile that favors maintaining the current stance. With the next Monetary Policy Report due alongside the October decision, trader consensus reflected in these odds anticipates no immediate policy shift absent clearer evidence of persistent inflation or a sharper economic slowdown.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volumen
$49,362Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% underscores the dominant factors behind the 90% market-implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have kept headline CPI near 3% in recent months, including July 2026 data, while core measures remain anchored around 2%, allowing policymakers to look through temporary pressures. At the same time, new U.S. tariffs introduce downside risks to growth and investment, creating a balanced risk profile that favors maintaining the current stance. With the next Monetary Policy Report due alongside the October decision, trader consensus reflected in these odds anticipates no immediate policy shift absent clearer evidence of persistent inflation or a sharper economic slowdown.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volumen
$49,362Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% underscores the dominant factors behind the 90% market-implied probability of no change at the October 28 meeting. Elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict have kept headline CPI near 3% in recent months, including July 2026 data, while core measures remain anchored around 2%, allowing policymakers to look through temporary pressures. At the same time, new U.S. tariffs introduce downside risks to growth and investment, creating a balanced risk profile that favors maintaining the current stance. With the next Monetary Policy Report due alongside the October decision, trader consensus reflected in these odds anticipates no immediate policy shift absent clearer evidence of persistent inflation or a sharper economic slowdown.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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