Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues benefits from structural advantages as the sitting PT governor seeking re-election in the October 2026 Bahia contest, including name recognition and established administrative record after defeating ACM Neto in the 2022 runoff. Recent Quaest polling indicates technical ties or narrow leads for Neto in some first-round scenarios, reflecting his alignment with the national right-wing bloc and Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort following União Brasil’s 2025 break from the Lula administration. Trader consensus at 66.5% for Rodrigues versus 34% for Neto incorporates these dynamics alongside low support for minor candidates, with five months of campaigning ahead that could shift momentum based on coalition building and voter mobilization in the Northeast state.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJerônimo Rodrigues 67%
ACM Neto 34%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$25,801 Vol.
$25,801 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
67%
ACM Neto
34%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 67%
ACM Neto 34%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$25,801 Vol.
$25,801 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$8,717 Vol.
67%
ACM Neto
$6,672 Vol.
34%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,217 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$2,060 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$1,628 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,722 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,786 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues benefits from structural advantages as the sitting PT governor seeking re-election in the October 2026 Bahia contest, including name recognition and established administrative record after defeating ACM Neto in the 2022 runoff. Recent Quaest polling indicates technical ties or narrow leads for Neto in some first-round scenarios, reflecting his alignment with the national right-wing bloc and Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort following União Brasil’s 2025 break from the Lula administration. Trader consensus at 66.5% for Rodrigues versus 34% for Neto incorporates these dynamics alongside low support for minor candidates, with five months of campaigning ahead that could shift momentum based on coalition building and voter mobilization in the Northeast state.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$25,801Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues benefits from structural advantages as the sitting PT governor seeking re-election in the October 2026 Bahia contest, including name recognition and established administrative record after defeating ACM Neto in the 2022 runoff. Recent Quaest polling indicates technical ties or narrow leads for Neto in some first-round scenarios, reflecting his alignment with the national right-wing bloc and Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort following União Brasil’s 2025 break from the Lula administration. Trader consensus at 66.5% for Rodrigues versus 34% for Neto incorporates these dynamics alongside low support for minor candidates, with five months of campaigning ahead that could shift momentum based on coalition building and voter mobilization in the Northeast state.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$25,801Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues benefits from structural advantages as the sitting PT governor seeking re-election in the October 2026 Bahia contest, including name recognition and established administrative record after defeating ACM Neto in the 2022 runoff. Recent Quaest polling indicates technical ties or narrow leads for Neto in some first-round scenarios, reflecting his alignment with the national right-wing bloc and Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort following União Brasil’s 2025 break from the Lula administration. Trader consensus at 66.5% for Rodrigues versus 34% for Neto incorporates these dynamics alongside low support for minor candidates, with five months of campaigning ahead that could shift momentum based on coalition building and voter mobilization in the Northeast state.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen