Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a modest trader edge in the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race, a rematch against former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO), due to his stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range and consolidation of municipal support networks. Recent Genial/Quaest polling from late July shows the pair statistically tied at 38-39 percent in first-round scenarios, narrowing an earlier Neto lead after Rodrigues recovered ground on education and infrastructure metrics. Neto’s 2025 alignment with the right-wing bloc and break from the federal administration has not shifted Bahia-specific dynamics enough to overcome incumbency advantages, while minor candidates remain sidelined. Upcoming campaign events and further polling could alter the close implied probabilities before the October-November vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJerônimo Rodrigues 57%
ACM Neto 41%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$99,923 Vol.
$99,923 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
57%
ACM Neto
41%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 57%
ACM Neto 41%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$99,923 Vol.
$99,923 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$32,665 Vol.
57%
ACM Neto
$32,838 Vol.
41%
Kleber Rosa
$10,032 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$8,130 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a modest trader edge in the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race, a rematch against former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO), due to his stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range and consolidation of municipal support networks. Recent Genial/Quaest polling from late July shows the pair statistically tied at 38-39 percent in first-round scenarios, narrowing an earlier Neto lead after Rodrigues recovered ground on education and infrastructure metrics. Neto’s 2025 alignment with the right-wing bloc and break from the federal administration has not shifted Bahia-specific dynamics enough to overcome incumbency advantages, while minor candidates remain sidelined. Upcoming campaign events and further polling could alter the close implied probabilities before the October-November vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$99,923Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a modest trader edge in the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race, a rematch against former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO), due to his stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range and consolidation of municipal support networks. Recent Genial/Quaest polling from late July shows the pair statistically tied at 38-39 percent in first-round scenarios, narrowing an earlier Neto lead after Rodrigues recovered ground on education and infrastructure metrics. Neto’s 2025 alignment with the right-wing bloc and break from the federal administration has not shifted Bahia-specific dynamics enough to overcome incumbency advantages, while minor candidates remain sidelined. Upcoming campaign events and further polling could alter the close implied probabilities before the October-November vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$99,923Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a modest trader edge in the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race, a rematch against former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO), due to his stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range and consolidation of municipal support networks. Recent Genial/Quaest polling from late July shows the pair statistically tied at 38-39 percent in first-round scenarios, narrowing an earlier Neto lead after Rodrigues recovered ground on education and infrastructure metrics. Neto’s 2025 alignment with the right-wing bloc and break from the federal administration has not shifted Bahia-specific dynamics enough to overcome incumbency advantages, while minor candidates remain sidelined. Upcoming campaign events and further polling could alter the close implied probabilities before the October-November vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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