Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital chokepoint for 12% of global seaborne trade including 5 million barrels of oil daily, have driven up shipping risk premiums and freight rates, with container shipping costs surging 300% since late 2023 per Drewry indices. Recent US-UK airstrikes intercepted drones and missiles over the past week, yet over 90% of vessels continue rerouting via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and $1 million per voyage in fuel. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, trading near $85/barrel amid contained escalation. Traders eye upcoming US policy shifts post-election and potential Iran-Houthi responses as key catalysts for resolution or further supply chain disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?
Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?
$199,243 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
31. März
1%
30. April
28%
$199,243 Vol.
31. März
$127,757 Vol.
1%
30. April
$71,485 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital chokepoint for 12% of global seaborne trade including 5 million barrels of oil daily, have driven up shipping risk premiums and freight rates, with container shipping costs surging 300% since late 2023 per Drewry indices. Recent US-UK airstrikes intercepted drones and missiles over the past week, yet over 90% of vessels continue rerouting via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and $1 million per voyage in fuel. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, trading near $85/barrel amid contained escalation. Traders eye upcoming US policy shifts post-election and potential Iran-Houthi responses as key catalysts for resolution or further supply chain disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volumen
$199,243Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital chokepoint for 12% of global seaborne trade including 5 million barrels of oil daily, have driven up shipping risk premiums and freight rates, with container shipping costs surging 300% since late 2023 per Drewry indices. Recent US-UK airstrikes intercepted drones and missiles over the past week, yet over 90% of vessels continue rerouting via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and $1 million per voyage in fuel. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, trading near $85/barrel amid contained escalation. Traders eye upcoming US policy shifts post-election and potential Iran-Houthi responses as key catalysts for resolution or further supply chain disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Volumen
$199,243Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital chokepoint for 12% of global seaborne trade including 5 million barrels of oil daily, have driven up shipping risk premiums and freight rates, with container shipping costs surging 300% since late 2023 per Drewry indices. Recent US-UK airstrikes intercepted drones and missiles over the past week, yet over 90% of vessels continue rerouting via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and $1 million per voyage in fuel. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, trading near $85/barrel amid contained escalation. Traders eye upcoming US policy shifts post-election and potential Iran-Houthi responses as key catalysts for resolution or further supply chain disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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