Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton seeks re-election in Arizona’s 4th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters with a partisan lean favoring his party. The July 21 primaries remain months away, leaving the general election contest on November 3, 2026, largely uncontested in trader assessments. Limited Republican primary activity and the absence of major national or local developments shifting the district’s underlying partisan balance support the current market pricing. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in this Phoenix-area district and the structural advantages of incumbency. Any late-cycle shifts would require significant changes in turnout patterns or candidate developments before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAZ-04 Wahlsieger
AZ-04 Wahlsieger
$16,779 Vol.
$16,779 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
87%
Republikanische Partei
14%
$16,779 Vol.
$16,779 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$13,971 Vol.
87%
Republikanische Partei
$2,808 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton seeks re-election in Arizona’s 4th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters with a partisan lean favoring his party. The July 21 primaries remain months away, leaving the general election contest on November 3, 2026, largely uncontested in trader assessments. Limited Republican primary activity and the absence of major national or local developments shifting the district’s underlying partisan balance support the current market pricing. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in this Phoenix-area district and the structural advantages of incumbency. Any late-cycle shifts would require significant changes in turnout patterns or candidate developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$16,779Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton seeks re-election in Arizona’s 4th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters with a partisan lean favoring his party. The July 21 primaries remain months away, leaving the general election contest on November 3, 2026, largely uncontested in trader assessments. Limited Republican primary activity and the absence of major national or local developments shifting the district’s underlying partisan balance support the current market pricing. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in this Phoenix-area district and the structural advantages of incumbency. Any late-cycle shifts would require significant changes in turnout patterns or candidate developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,779Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton seeks re-election in Arizona’s 4th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters with a partisan lean favoring his party. The July 21 primaries remain months away, leaving the general election contest on November 3, 2026, largely uncontested in trader assessments. Limited Republican primary activity and the absence of major national or local developments shifting the district’s underlying partisan balance support the current market pricing. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in this Phoenix-area district and the structural advantages of incumbency. Any late-cycle shifts would require significant changes in turnout patterns or candidate developments before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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