**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDurchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?
Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?
<25 100.0%
25–29 <1%
30–34 <1%
35-39 <1%
$51,688 Vol.
$51,688 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<25
Ja
25–29
Nein
30–34
Nein
35-39
Nein
40+
Nein
<25 100.0%
25–29 <1%
30–34 <1%
35-39 <1%
$51,688 Vol.
$51,688 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<25
$13,895 Vol.
Ja
25–29
$14,144 Vol.
Nein
30–34
$11,571 Vol.
Nein
35-39
$5,459 Vol.
Nein
40+
$6,619 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volumen
$51,688Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
IMF PortWatchAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$51,688Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
IMF PortWatchAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird es am 30. September weniger als 25 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?
68%
Ja
Werden 170-189 Schiffe zwischen dem 7. und 13. September die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße durchqueren?
40%
Ja
Werden weniger als 170 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 14. und 20. September durchqueren?
48%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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