Ongoing military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at minimal levels since late February 2026. Iranian forces have imposed strict controls, including reported mine deployment and selective permissions, resulting in daily transits often in the single digits and monthly totals around 5 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 3,000 vessels. As of early May, data from shipping trackers showed continued single-digit daily crossings amid naval blockades, mine clearance delays, and thousands of stranded vessels. This sustained disruption underpins trader consensus on the 0-10 outcome. A verified ceasefire, rapid mine clearance, or formal reopening to unrestricted neutral shipping could increase volumes, though clearance operations are projected to require months even after hostilities end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10 100.0%
10-20 <1%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
$816,935 Vol.
$816,935 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
0-10
Yes
10-20
No
20-40
No
40-60
No
60+
No
0-10 100.0%
10-20 <1%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
$816,935 Vol.
$816,935 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
0-10
$356,420 Vol.
Yes
10-20
$128,814 Vol.
No
20-40
$106,119 Vol.
No
40-60
$93,752 Vol.
No
60+
$131,829 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at minimal levels since late February 2026. Iranian forces have imposed strict controls, including reported mine deployment and selective permissions, resulting in daily transits often in the single digits and monthly totals around 5 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 3,000 vessels. As of early May, data from shipping trackers showed continued single-digit daily crossings amid naval blockades, mine clearance delays, and thousands of stranded vessels. This sustained disruption underpins trader consensus on the 0-10 outcome. A verified ceasefire, rapid mine clearance, or formal reopening to unrestricted neutral shipping could increase volumes, though clearance operations are projected to require months even after hostilities end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volumen
$816,935Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at minimal levels since late February 2026. Iranian forces have imposed strict controls, including reported mine deployment and selective permissions, resulting in daily transits often in the single digits and monthly totals around 5 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 3,000 vessels. As of early May, data from shipping trackers showed continued single-digit daily crossings amid naval blockades, mine clearance delays, and thousands of stranded vessels. This sustained disruption underpins trader consensus on the 0-10 outcome. A verified ceasefire, rapid mine clearance, or formal reopening to unrestricted neutral shipping could increase volumes, though clearance operations are projected to require months even after hostilities end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$816,935Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
Ongoing military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at minimal levels since late February 2026. Iranian forces have imposed strict controls, including reported mine deployment and selective permissions, resulting in daily transits often in the single digits and monthly totals around 5 percent of pre-conflict averages of roughly 3,000 vessels. As of early May, data from shipping trackers showed continued single-digit daily crossings amid naval blockades, mine clearance delays, and thousands of stranded vessels. This sustained disruption underpins trader consensus on the 0-10 outcome. A verified ceasefire, rapid mine clearance, or formal reopening to unrestricted neutral shipping could increase volumes, though clearance operations are projected to require months even after hostilities end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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