**Traders assign an 89.5% probability to no further Clacton by-election in 2026 primarily because the recall petition process imposes multiple high procedural barriers that are unlikely to be cleared before year-end.** Nigel Farage triggered and won a by-election on 13 August 2026 after resigning amid scrutiny over a £5 million gift from donor Christopher Harborne. A parallel parliamentary standards investigation into whether the gift required registration resumed immediately after his re-election. As of early October 2026, the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards is expected to deliver findings to the Committee on Standards shortly, with potential referral for Commons consideration. A by-election would require the committee to recommend, and the House to approve, a suspension exceeding 10 sitting days, followed by a successful recall petition signed by 10% of Clacton’s registered voters (roughly 8,000 signatures). Historical precedent shows such petitions rarely reach the threshold. Even if sanctions are imposed, the timeline for committee review, Commons debate, petition collection, and any subsequent writ makes completion before the end of 2026 improbable. Major parties have previously boycotted Clacton contests, further complicating opposition coordination. These structural and timing constraints underpin the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing.