Traders assign a 97.5% probability against Alcatraz reopening as a federal prison in 2026 because the island remains under National Park Service management as a historic site and tourist destination, with ferry dock repairs scheduled through November to sustain visitor access. President Trump directed the Bureau of Prisons in 2025 to pursue rebuilding and included a $152 million FY2027 budget request, yet no authorizing legislation has advanced, no construction has begun, and the site continues to lack essential infrastructure such as water and sewage systems. Congressional approval, environmental reviews, and transfer from park protections would all be required, none of which have occurred with weeks remaining in the calendar year. Late-session funding or emergency executive action could theoretically shift timelines, though structural, legal, and logistical barriers make completion before year-end improbable.