Mailza Assis (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after her predecessor stepped down to run for the Senate, secured 49.76% in the October 4 first round—nearly 18 points ahead of senator Alan Rick (Republicanos) at 32.27%—winning 19 of 22 municipalities and advancing to the October 25 runoff. This performance, backed by PP-led alliances and continuity messaging on state programs, has driven trader consensus toward her commanding lead in the governor election market. Other candidates such as Tião Bocalom and Thor Dantas trailed far behind. Late shifts could still occur if Rick consolidates opposition votes or if turnout patterns change in the final weeks, though structural advantages favor the frontrunner absent major new developments.