**Closely matched market-implied odds around 23–27% for OpenAI, Meta, and Google reflect a tight contest for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Overall, Style Control On) as of October 31.** Recent model releases have kept the field fluid: OpenAI’s early-September GPT-6 Astra rollout strengthened its reasoning and alignment scores, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants delivered notable benchmark gains in coding and terminal tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations maintain competitive positioning. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Alibaba continue closing gaps on style-controlled metrics that reduce bias from response length or formatting. With roughly eight weeks remaining, traders are pricing in the potential for additional frontier updates or inference optimizations to shift lab rankings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMeta 26%
OpenAI 23.5%
Google 22%
Alibaba 6%
$39,906 Vol.
$39,906 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Meta
26%
OpenAI
24%
22%
Alibaba
6%
Moonshot
5%
Z.ai
5%
Mistral
5%
Baidu
4%
Anthropic
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 26%
OpenAI 23.5%
Google 22%
Alibaba 6%
$39,906 Vol.
$39,906 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Meta
$6,225 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$4,364 Vol.
24%
$17,530 Vol.
22%
Alibaba
$5,007 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$469 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$332 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$399 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$315 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$453 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$304 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$294 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$502 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$509 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$360 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$395 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$380 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$546 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$393 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$375 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$380 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$375 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Closely matched market-implied odds around 23–27% for OpenAI, Meta, and Google reflect a tight contest for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Overall, Style Control On) as of October 31.** Recent model releases have kept the field fluid: OpenAI’s early-September GPT-6 Astra rollout strengthened its reasoning and alignment scores, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants delivered notable benchmark gains in coding and terminal tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations maintain competitive positioning. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Alibaba continue closing gaps on style-controlled metrics that reduce bias from response length or formatting. With roughly eight weeks remaining, traders are pricing in the potential for additional frontier updates or inference optimizations to shift lab rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volumen
$39,906Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Closely matched market-implied odds around 23–27% for OpenAI, Meta, and Google reflect a tight contest for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Overall, Style Control On) as of October 31.** Recent model releases have kept the field fluid: OpenAI’s early-September GPT-6 Astra rollout strengthened its reasoning and alignment scores, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants delivered notable benchmark gains in coding and terminal tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations maintain competitive positioning. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Alibaba continue closing gaps on style-controlled metrics that reduce bias from response length or formatting. With roughly eight weeks remaining, traders are pricing in the potential for additional frontier updates or inference optimizations to shift lab rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$39,906Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Closely matched market-implied odds around 23–27% for OpenAI, Meta, and Google reflect a tight contest for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Overall, Style Control On) as of October 31.** Recent model releases have kept the field fluid: OpenAI’s early-September GPT-6 Astra rollout strengthened its reasoning and alignment scores, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants delivered notable benchmark gains in coding and terminal tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations maintain competitive positioning. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Alibaba continue closing gaps on style-controlled metrics that reduce bias from response length or formatting. With roughly eight weeks remaining, traders are pricing in the potential for additional frontier updates or inference optimizations to shift lab rankings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen