Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, propelled by their Euro 2024 triumph, unbeaten UEFA qualifying run, and golden generation stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri delivering consistent form. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%) trail closely, reflecting deep squads, World Cup pedigree, and recent qualifier successes amid CONMEBOL clinching spots for six teams. The market's tightness stems from the expanded 48-team format's volatility—top two plus eight best third-placers advance—with the recent group draw creating balanced paths and upset risks, as intercontinental playoffs wrap up this week featuring Bolivia's edge over Suriname and Jamaica's win versus New Caledonia.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 10.9%
Argentinien 10.1%
$401,044,111 Vol.
$401,044,111 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Kroatien
1%
Mexiko
1%
Ecuador
1%
Schweiz
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Spanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 10.9%
Argentinien 10.1%
$401,044,111 Vol.
$401,044,111 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Kroatien
1%
Mexiko
1%
Ecuador
1%
Schweiz
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, propelled by their Euro 2024 triumph, unbeaten UEFA qualifying run, and golden generation stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri delivering consistent form. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%) trail closely, reflecting deep squads, World Cup pedigree, and recent qualifier successes amid CONMEBOL clinching spots for six teams. The market's tightness stems from the expanded 48-team format's volatility—top two plus eight best third-placers advance—with the recent group draw creating balanced paths and upset risks, as intercontinental playoffs wrap up this week featuring Bolivia's edge over Suriname and Jamaica's win versus New Caledonia.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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