Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by a dominant 3-0 friendly win over Serbia on March 28 that showcased Lamine Yamal and Pedri's form, alongside their top seeding from the December draw and strong UEFA qualification campaign. England (12.8%) and France (10.9%) trail closely after England's resilient 1-1 draw versus Uruguay and France's morale-boosting 2-1 upset of Brazil on March 26, with Mbappé starring, highlighting deep attacking options amid bunched odds. Argentina (9.9%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive threats via Copa América pedigree and CONMEBOL auto-qualification, but recent friendly losses expose vulnerabilities in a wide-open 48-team field with favorable group paths for elites.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 10.8%
Argentinien 10.0%
$404,758,802 Vol.
$404,758,802 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
3%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Kroatien
1%
Mexiko
1%
Ecuador
1%
Schweiz
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Spanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 10.8%
Argentinien 10.0%
$404,758,802 Vol.
$404,758,802 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
3%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Kroatien
1%
Mexiko
1%
Ecuador
1%
Schweiz
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by a dominant 3-0 friendly win over Serbia on March 28 that showcased Lamine Yamal and Pedri's form, alongside their top seeding from the December draw and strong UEFA qualification campaign. England (12.8%) and France (10.9%) trail closely after England's resilient 1-1 draw versus Uruguay and France's morale-boosting 2-1 upset of Brazil on March 26, with Mbappé starring, highlighting deep attacking options amid bunched odds. Argentina (9.9%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive threats via Copa América pedigree and CONMEBOL auto-qualification, but recent friendly losses expose vulnerabilities in a wide-open 48-team field with favorable group paths for elites.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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