Trader consensus favors Fabiano Caruana at 31% implied probability to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, reflecting his sustained world #2 Elo rating above 2780 and runner-up finish in the 2024 edition amid consistent classical performances. Hikaru Nakamura trails at 21.5%, buoyed by top live ratings, recent speed chess titles, and historical Candidates contention. Javokhir Sindarov's 14.5% share highlights his rapid ascent as World Junior Champion and strong FIDE Circuit points accumulation, while Praggnanandhaa R at 11.5% gains from his victory in the November 2024 FIDE Grand Prix New Delhi leg. Wei Yi and Anish Giri around 9-10% underscore steady top-10 rankings in the ongoing World Championship qualification cycle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFabiano Caruana 32%
Hikaru Nakamura 22%
Javokhir Sindarov 15%
Praggnanandhaa R 12%
$802,511 Vol.
$802,511 Vol.
Fabiano Caruana
32%
Hikaru Nakamura
22%
Javokhir Sindarov
15%
Praggnanandhaa R
12%
Wei Yi
10%
Anish Giri
9%
Andrey Esipenko
3%
Matthias Bluebaum
2%
Fabiano Caruana 32%
Hikaru Nakamura 22%
Javokhir Sindarov 15%
Praggnanandhaa R 12%
$802,511 Vol.
$802,511 Vol.
Fabiano Caruana
32%
Hikaru Nakamura
22%
Javokhir Sindarov
15%
Praggnanandhaa R
12%
Wei Yi
10%
Anish Giri
9%
Andrey Esipenko
3%
Matthias Bluebaum
2%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Fabiano Caruana at 31% implied probability to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, reflecting his sustained world #2 Elo rating above 2780 and runner-up finish in the 2024 edition amid consistent classical performances. Hikaru Nakamura trails at 21.5%, buoyed by top live ratings, recent speed chess titles, and historical Candidates contention. Javokhir Sindarov's 14.5% share highlights his rapid ascent as World Junior Champion and strong FIDE Circuit points accumulation, while Praggnanandhaa R at 11.5% gains from his victory in the November 2024 FIDE Grand Prix New Delhi leg. Wei Yi and Anish Giri around 9-10% underscore steady top-10 rankings in the ongoing World Championship qualification cycle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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