Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast since July 2026, including control of Mokha port and Perim Island by mid-September, have driven sustained attacks on Saudi-linked vessels and elevated insurance and security costs, prompting many container operators to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope at an added $0.9–1 million and 10–14 days per voyage. Tanker and select bulk traffic persists, with IMF PortWatch and AIS data showing daily transits averaging 9–30 vessels as of early October—down sharply from pre-2024 norms near 50 but well above zero—with Saudi crude loadings through the strait halved yet ongoing at roughly 1.5 million barrels per day. Brent crude prices have responded to the broader chokepoint risks, recently trading above $100 per barrel amid concurrent Hormuz tensions. Trader-implied odds remain low for a full daily shutdown because economic incentives for risk-tolerant operators and pipeline alternatives continue to support limited flows, though further escalation or a formal blockade could shift market-implied probabilities ahead of key data releases.