tetlock
Beigetreten März 2026·0 Aufrufe
$122.36
Positionen Wert
$1.69
Größter Gewinn
19
Prognosen
Gewinn/Verlust
Letzter Tag
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 Anteile49¢
92¢
$25.08$11.72 (87.75%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 Anteile$25.08$11.72 (87.75%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 Anteile56¢
46.5¢
$22.19-$4.53 (-16.96%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 Anteile$22.19-$4.53 (-16.96%)
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Yes 70¢
19.1 Anteile$14.60$1.24 (9.29%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
No 71¢
18.8 Anteile$13.64$0.28 (2.11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Yes 44¢
30.4 Anteile$12.15-$1.21 (-9.09%)
51.1¢
21.5¢
$11.37-$15.62 (-57.89%)
$11.37-$15.62 (-57.89%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 Anteile45¢
33¢
$9.80-$3.56 (-26.67%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 Anteile$9.80-$3.56 (-26.67%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
No 55¢
23.6 Anteile$8.63-$4.37 (-33.64%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 86¢
2.3 Anteile$1.92-$0.08 (-4.07%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
No 63.1¢
3.2 Anteile$1.85-$0.15 (-7.53%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 Anteile74.9¢
22¢
$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 Anteile$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
Yes 28¢
6.4 Anteile$0.51-$1.29 (-71.43%)