Skip to main content

Jul 12, 2026

Breaking News

See the polymarkets that moved the most in the last 24 hours

1
icon for Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?

0%
92%
2
icon for Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?

89%
86%
3
icon for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?

77%
68%
4
icon for Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3

Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3

19%
54%
5
icon for Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

100%
50%
6
icon for Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

100%
49%
7
icon for Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

37%
34%
8
icon for Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

46%
24%
9
icon for Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

67%
20%
10
icon for Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?

0%
20%
11
icon for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

36%
19%
12
icon for Will MrBeast get married by December 31?

Will MrBeast get married by December 31?

97%
17%
13
icon for 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?

19%
17%
14
icon for Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

2%
15%
15
icon for Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?

Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?

45%
15%
16
icon for Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

32%
12%
17
icon for Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

37%
12%
18
icon for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

46%
12%
19
icon for Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

80%
11%
20
icon for Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?

Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?

54%
11%
21
icon for Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

54%
10%
22
icon for Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

91%
9%
23
icon for Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?

11%
8%
24
icon for Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

17%
8%
25
icon for IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?

5%
8%