Traders assign a 98.9% probability that Xi Jinping will not divorce before 2027 because Peng Liyuan continues to appear publicly alongside him in her established role as first lady, including joint diplomatic engagements during the September 2026 U.S. visit and earlier SCO events. Official state media maintains the long-standing couple narrative without interruption, while unverified mid-2025 rumors were directly contradicted by subsequent documented activities. China's leadership structure prioritizes a stable family image for regime continuity, with tight information controls limiting any credible basis for a public split. Even amid recent health speculation around the 73-year-old leader, Peng's visible supportive presence reinforces the status quo. A verifiable announcement remains improbable absent extraordinary private developments that overcome institutional barriers to disclosure.