Recent polling in the open-seat Wisconsin gubernatorial race shows Democrat David Crowley holding narrow leads over Republican Tom Tiffany among likely voters, including Marquette University surveys from September placing Crowley ahead by three points. These results reflect Democratic advantages in turnout models and independent support in a state where the party has held the governorship since 2019. Crowley's primary upset victory and endorsements from outgoing Governor Tony Evers and former President Obama have bolstered his position, while Tiffany's primary win and backing from President Trump coincide with heavy outside spending from Republican donors. Traders appear to price in these dynamics and historical Democratic performance in statewide contests, producing the current implied probabilities ahead of early voting.