Traders assign a 97.7% probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting broad consensus on the low historical frequency of presidential resignations and the absence of recent developments that would compel such an outcome. Trump began his term following the 2024 election with standard institutional pressures but no confirmed health crises, successful impeachment proceedings, or bipartisan coalition pushing for departure. Factors supporting this view include consistent public commitments to completing the term, typical patterns of incumbents serving full mandates absent extraordinary events, and the procedural hurdles of removal via Congress. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical developments, unforeseen legal resolutions with direct personal impact, or major diplomatic or domestic crises prompting voluntary exit, though none currently register as probable within the resolution window.