The Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline, calculated from the remaining carbon budget divided by observed emissions trajectories using IPCC AR6-derived estimates and Global Carbon Project data, shows strong stability through late 2026. Annual or quarterly revisions to the published date require substantial shifts in the five-year emissions trend or updated budget assessments, neither of which has materialized amid steady global CO₂ output near 40–42 Gt per year. Recent UNEP and observational reports confirming inevitable near-term overshoot have not triggered recalibrations exceeding the 30-day threshold for a change. While a surprise late-year budget revision or abrupt emissions surge could still alter the July 2029 target, the absence of scheduled authoritative updates supports the 94% market-implied odds against movement by December 31.
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