Russia has sustained its forces in Ukraine primarily through contract recruitment, financial incentives, and limited conscription rather than a new formal mobilization decree, with the 2022 partial mobilization framework still technically active but unexpanded. Kremlin officials, including President Putin, have repeatedly dismissed rumors of an open call-up as unfounded, citing sufficient voluntary enlistments despite reports of declining sign-ups and regional coercion tactics such as street roundups. Preparatory measures, including mobilization drills, electronic tracking systems, and army size increases via decree, continue without triggering a public announcement. Ukrainian intelligence assessments point to covert recruitment and plans for hundreds of thousands of additional personnel, yet these have not produced a qualifying formal policy change. Traders appear to weigh the political risks of an overt mobilization against ongoing alternatives, resulting in low implied probabilities for a near-term announcement.