The March 17 withdrawal deadline for Texas’s Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff passed without Ken Paxton exiting the contest against incumbent John Cornyn, solidifying trader expectations that he will remain on the ballot. Paxton’s earlier conditional offer to consider stepping aside if Senate Republicans ended the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act has not been met, and no subsequent statements or events have altered his public stance. The absence of an endorsement from President Trump has also failed to trigger an exit, leaving both candidates actively competing ahead of the May vote. This sustained commitment, combined with the procedural barrier of the missed deadline, underpins the overwhelming market consensus against a dropout. The only plausible shifts would require an abrupt Trump endorsement of Cornyn coupled with intense pressure on Paxton, or sudden legislative movement on the SAVE Act that directly satisfies Paxton’s stated terms.