Israel’s government has accelerated settlement construction, land registration in Area C, and infrastructure projects such as the E1 corridor in 2026, moves widely viewed as advancing de facto control over parts of the West Bank. Formal annexation, however, remains stalled by consistent U.S. opposition from President Trump, who has publicly stated he will not permit sovereignty claims, and by the October 27 Knesset elections that could alter coalition dynamics. Far-right ministers have issued annexation calls, yet these have not translated into binding legislation or cabinet decisions. Traders assign a 96% probability against formal annexation before 2027 because diplomatic constraints, electoral timing, and the preference for incremental administrative changes over a high-risk sovereignty declaration continue to shape policy. Late shifts could occur if post-election coalition pressures or major security events alter U.S. or Israeli calculations within the remaining window.