**Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Iran conflict continue to shape expectations around potential Iranian actions toward Bahrain.** Bahrain hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, making it a frequent target in Iranian retaliatory strikes via missiles and drones since February 2026, with documented attacks damaging infrastructure, residential areas, and energy facilities in Manama and elsewhere. Recent developments include IRGC warnings on October 10 threatening tankers near Bahraini ports amid tit-for-tat exchanges with US forces, alongside Bahrain’s leadership of calls to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian restrictions. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with Bahrain refusing participation in Iran-Gulf talks until bilateral relations resume, citing repeated sovereignty violations. These dynamics reflect Bahrain’s strategic position, historical Iranian rhetoric framing it as disputed territory, and the spillover risks from any escalation in Hormuz shipping disputes or US-Iran frictions.