**The 65.5% market-implied probability on “No” reflects the infrequency of nine-figure sales even during a recovering art market.** While 2025–2026 delivered multiple results above $150 million—including Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025 and Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* at $181.2 million in May 2026—these were driven by exceptional single-owner collections (Lauder, Newhouse) rather than routine supply. Fall 2026 auctions lack comparable guaranteed trophy lots, and the broader market remains selective: gains concentrate among blue-chip historical works with strong provenance and art-historical validation, while liquidity below the top tier stays cautious. Traders view another $150 million+ result before year-end as possible but not probable given the calendar and current consignment pipeline, producing the observed lean toward “No.”
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?
42% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 1, 2027
42% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**The 65.5% market-implied probability on “No” reflects the infrequency of nine-figure sales even during a recovering art market.** While 2025–2026 delivered multiple results above $150 million—including Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025 and Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* at $181.2 million in May 2026—these were driven by exceptional single-owner collections (Lauder, Newhouse) rather than routine supply.
Fall 2026 auctions lack comparable guaranteed trophy lots, and the broader market remains selective: gains concentrate among blue-chip historical works with strong provenance and art-historical validation, while liquidity below the top tier stays cautious. Traders view another $150 million+ result before year-end as possible but not probable given the calendar and current consignment pipeline, producing the observed lean toward “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,388শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**The 65.5% market-implied probability on “No” reflects the infrequency of nine-figure sales even during a recovering art market.** While 2025–2026 delivered multiple results above $150 million—including Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025 and Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* at $181.2 million in May 2026—these were driven by exceptional single-owner collections (Lauder, Newhouse) rather than routine supply.
Fall 2026 auctions lack comparable guaranteed trophy lots, and the broader market remains selective: gains concentrate among blue-chip historical works with strong provenance and art-historical validation, while liquidity below the top tier stays cautious. Traders view another $150 million+ result before year-end as possible but not probable given the calendar and current consignment pipeline, producing the observed lean toward “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
ভলিউম
$1,388শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 65.5% market-implied probability on “No” reflects the infrequency of nine-figure sales even during a recovering art market.** While 2025–2026 delivered multiple results above $150 million—including Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025 and Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* at $181.2 million in May 2026—these were driven by exceptional single-owner collections (Lauder, Newhouse) rather than routine supply. Fall 2026 auctions lack comparable guaranteed trophy lots, and the broader market remains selective: gains concentrate among blue-chip historical works with strong provenance and art-historical validation, while liquidity below the top tier stays cautious. Traders view another $150 million+ result before year-end as possible but not probable given the calendar and current consignment pipeline, producing the observed lean toward “No.”
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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