**Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election features a fragmented field of 38 submitted lists, with polling averages showing no bloc near the 61-seat majority needed for a stable government.** Likud and Yashar trade narrow leads in the low-to-mid 20s, while B’Yachad, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Joint List typically clear the 3.25% threshold for 7–13 seats each. Smaller lists such as those involving Hendel-Zelekha or Winter hover near or below the bar in recent surveys, making surplus-vote pacts and turnout decisive. The Oct. 7 anniversary and security concerns have hardened existing voter alignments without shifting bloc totals significantly, leaving coalition math dependent on which marginal parties ultimately qualify and which larger factions secure surplus agreements by October 16.