Anthropic's strong positioning at 81.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants, which have topped recent LiveBench snapshots with overall scores around 83%, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (around 82%) and earlier GPT-5.6 models. These updates demonstrate sustained gains in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-free benchmark, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic's edge heading into late October. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing performance amid rapid iteration cycles, while other labs remain below 1% due to wider capability gaps on verifiable LiveBench categories. Key catalysts include any further model drops or benchmark refreshes before month-end that could shift the narrow frontier.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAnthropic 82%
OpenAI 17%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$21,315 Vol.
$21,315 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
82%
OpenAI
17%
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 82%
OpenAI 17%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$21,315 Vol.
$21,315 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,201 Vol.
82%
OpenAI
$3,266 Vol.
17%
$578 Vol.
1%
Meta
$481 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$386 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$465 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$494 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$443 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$435 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$481 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$492 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$471 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$492 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$448 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$438 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$502 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$449 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$431 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's strong positioning at 81.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants, which have topped recent LiveBench snapshots with overall scores around 83%, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (around 82%) and earlier GPT-5.6 models. These updates demonstrate sustained gains in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-free benchmark, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic's edge heading into late October. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing performance amid rapid iteration cycles, while other labs remain below 1% due to wider capability gaps on verifiable LiveBench categories. Key catalysts include any further model drops or benchmark refreshes before month-end that could shift the narrow frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$21,315শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's strong positioning at 81.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants, which have topped recent LiveBench snapshots with overall scores around 83%, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (around 82%) and earlier GPT-5.6 models. These updates demonstrate sustained gains in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-free benchmark, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic's edge heading into late October. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing performance amid rapid iteration cycles, while other labs remain below 1% due to wider capability gaps on verifiable LiveBench categories. Key catalysts include any further model drops or benchmark refreshes before month-end that could shift the narrow frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
ভলিউম
$21,315শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's strong positioning at 81.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants, which have topped recent LiveBench snapshots with overall scores around 83%, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (around 82%) and earlier GPT-5.6 models. These updates demonstrate sustained gains in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-free benchmark, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic's edge heading into late October. OpenAI's 17% reflects competitive but trailing performance amid rapid iteration cycles, while other labs remain below 1% due to wider capability gaps on verifiable LiveBench categories. Key catalysts include any further model drops or benchmark refreshes before month-end that could shift the narrow frontier.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা