Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams holds a commanding 74% implied probability on Polymarket to win Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting trader consensus on his strengthened position after state Sen. Kathleen Riebe's April 11 dropout due to fundraising shortfalls and her endorsement, which consolidated moderate support while criticizing rival Nate Blouin as "volatile." Blouin's 22% odds persist despite widespread backlash from resurfaced 2009–2015 social media posts featuring vulgar slurs, mockery of Latter-day Saints, and sexual assault jokes—revealed April 15—prompting calls to drop out from Democratic colleagues and opponents, whom he blamed on "bigger forces." A March Data for Progress poll had McAdams at 36% to Blouin's 23% among likely voters with 25% undecided; the April 25 state convention looms as a key delegate battle. Other candidates lag with under 1% each, underscoring the two-way race dynamics in the D-leaning district.